I would like to see how the generative AI hype does in a recession. So much of the economy is now driven by a generative AI movement meant to make our wealthiest VCs and big corporations even more powerful. What could possibly go wrong?
This isn't even a legit artificial age proper. Generative AI is giving young talent the message that they can use all of these tools I substitutes for starting a business or working hard. Let's see how that social experiment turns out.
New entrants who figure out how to “rewire the context” thrive in a recession. Not only are they figuring out how to out-execute the established players, but at the same time the established players are often scaling back.
This is an absolute gem. Whenever I see a post or hear a comment on a podcast "saying AI won't take your jobs, somebody with AI will," I cringe internally. My mother worked as a shorthand expert and typist, so I remember the massive change that happened as word processors became the default. I started talking about if "computers are a bicycle for the mind," then is "AI the e-bike of the mind?" That opens up the conversation around, but aren't you just going faster, same as everyone else and misses the transformation to other forms of transport (or no transport at all).
This is really apparent in the usage of AI for marketing, and search engines optimisation (SEO).
Obviously AI doesn't increase the number of search results on page 1.
Obviously AI is universally available...
But with fomo and fear. With the reality that you can benefit enough in the short term to justify a long term failure.
People struggle to imagine THE NEED to anticipate a new system. Asking, how to move faster than competitors, instead of, what are the new criteria that will distinguish you from your peers?
I imagine it's the same across many industries and use cases.
😭😭😭😭 The volume of shit getting published to appease now ancient SEO gods is horrifying...
Thanks for sharing it's a great example of how GenAI has changed the system, and how using GenAi to accelerate tasks in the old system is i) missing the point ii) uncompetitive in the medium to long-term.
GenAI has been lauded as a means to replace Customer Support Agents, but studies show that this can reduce trust and loyalty and decrease satisfaction....not as clear a paradox as the SEO example.
Would love to hear more examples from other industries...
Engaging with your specific citation on AI as Customer Support Agents, I could not agree more. The deployment of these systems demonstrates a basic lack of understanding on the parts of strategic management re: what human customer support agents actually do.
This is one of the rare pieces that not only names the framing error, but walks it down the hall, shows you the doors it closed, and leaves you standing where the real questions live.
The Maginot Line metaphor is overused, yes—but here it works because you don't just gesture at it, you commit to it. And in doing so, you illustrate exactly how these aphorisms function: not as clarifying insights, but as consensus sedatives.
Especially appreciate your point on Ricardian rents and coordination layers. It’s not that AI makes workers more efficient—it makes them easier to replace, because the architecture of value capture has shifted upstream. This distinction is still lost on too many panels, white papers, and LinkedIn threads nodding along to "AI won't take your job..." as if that’s the end of the thought.
Would love to see you expand more on coordination as the new scarcity. That, to me, is the thread that ties this all together.
I am guessing it is not administrative coordination but really high level and foundations across it just the business nut the netwoRKS that a real AI transformation creates.
This article is extremely insightful, even without ANY reference to AI. The principles it teaches are incredibly relevant to today's systems and playing fields, which, of course, happen to increasingly include AI.
Thanks, most of my work is focused on explaining competitive dilemmas using systems thinking and game theory. AI is just a convenient and relevant narrative to apply that lens to.
This is piece is amazing. I just preordered your book. This is exactly the kind of discourse we need around AI, particularly how it's shifting the entire labor landscape.
I was with you till the part about Excel experts holding the power. It's the people number cruchers report to that make decisions. Other than that, great points about how AI is reinventing work. This is why adoption is slower at corporate than individual level, as the higher-ups figure out what to do. Your job is at risk slowly at first, then all at once.
So you really think ALL the leaders are delusional?
I don’t. I think some or a lot of them know the truth and just spout this nonsense to keep people on board long enough to teach the AI. But the leaders with enough enterprise experience know. They either turn aBlind eye or are looking to extend their own runs.
Wow...this one really set me thinking!! Btw, I think your book launch is due on June 22,2025...your article mentions it as June 2022...so I got a little confused!!
This is the most insightful AI article I have read in past 3 months, which is a lifetime in AI era :)
That is definitely the highest compliment.
3 months is indeed a lifetime in this era.
My own lens of deconstructing and explaining what happens has changed dramatically in these three months as well.
As always by Sangeet , well articulated and incisive .
Very insightful article. A food for thought indeed.
I would like to see how the generative AI hype does in a recession. So much of the economy is now driven by a generative AI movement meant to make our wealthiest VCs and big corporations even more powerful. What could possibly go wrong?
This isn't even a legit artificial age proper. Generative AI is giving young talent the message that they can use all of these tools I substitutes for starting a business or working hard. Let's see how that social experiment turns out.
New entrants who figure out how to “rewire the context” thrive in a recession. Not only are they figuring out how to out-execute the established players, but at the same time the established players are often scaling back.
This is an absolute gem. Whenever I see a post or hear a comment on a podcast "saying AI won't take your jobs, somebody with AI will," I cringe internally. My mother worked as a shorthand expert and typist, so I remember the massive change that happened as word processors became the default. I started talking about if "computers are a bicycle for the mind," then is "AI the e-bike of the mind?" That opens up the conversation around, but aren't you just going faster, same as everyone else and misses the transformation to other forms of transport (or no transport at all).
This is really apparent in the usage of AI for marketing, and search engines optimisation (SEO).
Obviously AI doesn't increase the number of search results on page 1.
Obviously AI is universally available...
But with fomo and fear. With the reality that you can benefit enough in the short term to justify a long term failure.
People struggle to imagine THE NEED to anticipate a new system. Asking, how to move faster than competitors, instead of, what are the new criteria that will distinguish you from your peers?
I imagine it's the same across many industries and use cases.
😭😭😭😭 The volume of shit getting published to appease now ancient SEO gods is horrifying...
Thanks for sharing it's a great example of how GenAI has changed the system, and how using GenAi to accelerate tasks in the old system is i) missing the point ii) uncompetitive in the medium to long-term.
GenAI has been lauded as a means to replace Customer Support Agents, but studies show that this can reduce trust and loyalty and decrease satisfaction....not as clear a paradox as the SEO example.
Would love to hear more examples from other industries...
Engaging with your specific citation on AI as Customer Support Agents, I could not agree more. The deployment of these systems demonstrates a basic lack of understanding on the parts of strategic management re: what human customer support agents actually do.
This is one of the rare pieces that not only names the framing error, but walks it down the hall, shows you the doors it closed, and leaves you standing where the real questions live.
The Maginot Line metaphor is overused, yes—but here it works because you don't just gesture at it, you commit to it. And in doing so, you illustrate exactly how these aphorisms function: not as clarifying insights, but as consensus sedatives.
Especially appreciate your point on Ricardian rents and coordination layers. It’s not that AI makes workers more efficient—it makes them easier to replace, because the architecture of value capture has shifted upstream. This distinction is still lost on too many panels, white papers, and LinkedIn threads nodding along to "AI won't take your job..." as if that’s the end of the thought.
Would love to see you expand more on coordination as the new scarcity. That, to me, is the thread that ties this all together.
Great summary of what I was going for.
Coordination as the new scarcity is precisely the theme of my upcoming book.
I'll keep an eye out for it! :-)
Actually, I just pre-ordered it!
I am guessing it is not administrative coordination but really high level and foundations across it just the business nut the netwoRKS that a real AI transformation creates.
Workers already know/suspect that they won't be the primary beneficiaries of AI adoption. Brian Merchant had a post about it: https://open.substack.com/pub/bloodinthemachine/p/workers-know-exactly-who-ai-will?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=43i04m
This article is extremely insightful, even without ANY reference to AI. The principles it teaches are incredibly relevant to today's systems and playing fields, which, of course, happen to increasingly include AI.
Thanks, most of my work is focused on explaining competitive dilemmas using systems thinking and game theory. AI is just a convenient and relevant narrative to apply that lens to.
You are right. I have seen the commoditization described in this piece happen with other “jobs” in the past 15 years too
Excellent work. You're becoming one of my favs with your analysis
Very insightful. Thanks for the share.
Simply the best piece of writing on AI that I’ve read all year. Thankyou. Book ordered!
Thanks for the kind words! I'm glad it's resonating .
I want your essays in every context window
Love that!
This is piece is amazing. I just preordered your book. This is exactly the kind of discourse we need around AI, particularly how it's shifting the entire labor landscape.
Thanks! That's great to hear!
AI is very much a systems-level change and the task-focused way of looking at things isn't serving us well.
I was with you till the part about Excel experts holding the power. It's the people number cruchers report to that make decisions. Other than that, great points about how AI is reinventing work. This is why adoption is slower at corporate than individual level, as the higher-ups figure out what to do. Your job is at risk slowly at first, then all at once.
Good point. That's where I was going (that decision power shifted to spreadsheets) but didn't land it well.
Didn't expect to read through this whole article... and yet I couldn't stop. Amazing piece, thank you.
Holy shit this is an instant classic🔥
Fascinating topic it really does make you wonder.
Excellent article.
I see your fallacies EVERY DAY in organizations.
Delusional workers, leaders, etc.
So you really think ALL the leaders are delusional?
I don’t. I think some or a lot of them know the truth and just spout this nonsense to keep people on board long enough to teach the AI. But the leaders with enough enterprise experience know. They either turn aBlind eye or are looking to extend their own runs.
Wow...this one really set me thinking!! Btw, I think your book launch is due on June 22,2025...your article mentions it as June 2022...so I got a little confused!!
Fixed it!